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Bush's Asian Priorities
Stratfor 2003. 5. 23
Summary
In
the month following the end of the war in Iraq, U.S. President George W. Bush
has met with five key Asia Pacific allies: Australian Prime Minister John
Howard, Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, South Korean President Roh Moo
Hyun, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and Japanese Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi. The treatment extended to these regional leaders reveals much
about the Bush administration's views of the importance and potential for
relationships in Asia.
Analysis
After declaring the end of major
fighting in Iraq, U.S. President George W. Bush began a month of intense
international diplomatic contact. Among those feted by the U.S. president in May
were leaders of five Asia Pacific allies: Australian Prime Minister John Howard,
Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun,
Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and Japanese Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi.
However, Bush did not treat all of these leaders with
equal pomp. Howard and Koizumi visited the president's ranch in Crawford, Texas;
Arroyo attended a rare state dinner and Goh and Roh came to Washington, the
former to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and latter to only briefly meet with
Bush. The visits in part demonstrated Washington's gratitude for these nations'
support regarding the war in Iraq. But the differences in treatment also reflect
the administration's future priorities in the Asia Pacific region.
Bush
added Howard and Koizumi to a short list of world leaders invited to visit the
Crawford ranch, a list that includes British Prime Minister Tony Blair, former
Chinese President Jiang Zemin, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Saudi Arabian
Crown Prince Abdullah and Spanish President Jose Maria Aznar. Not
coincidentally, Australia and Japan were the two nations that offered material
support for U.S. operations in Afghanistan and Iraq -- Australia deploying
troops and Japan sending refueling ships and an AEGIS missile
destroyer.
Japan and Australia are the two anchor points of the U.S.
security presence in East Asia: Japan hosts about 40,000 U.S. forces and
Australia is taking on a more active role as a military ally -- so much so that
the Howard government has been derisively referred to in some Asian nations as
the U.S. Deputy in the region. But as Washington redefines its global military
basing posture, Australia and Japan will become even more critical allies.
Already, the United States is encouraging Japan to move beyond its pacifist
constitution and begin contributing militarily to regional security -- something
with which Koizumi appears to agree.
Two other secondary points in
Washington's evolving Asian security strategy are Singapore -- a traditional
ally -- and the Philippines, which is rebuilding ties shattered by the removal
of U.S. bases in the country. While Bush didn't give Goh any special treatment
during his early May visit, the two did ink the new FTA, which has been in the
works for some time. Interestingly, a similar FTA between the United States and
Chile, which did not support U.S. military efforts in Iraq, has not yet been
formalized.
Singapore, located at the crossroads of the Pacific and
Indian oceans, long has been a key U.S. ally, and recently completed a new pier
designed to berth U.S. aircraft carriers. Manila has not taken such permanent
steps in its relations with Washington, but the Arroyo government was quick to
begin rebuilding the formerly tight military bonds between the two nations. The
Philippines was the so-called second front in the war against terrorism, and
despite domestic opposition -- including that from her own vice president --
Arroyo invited U.S. forces to the Philippines to conduct training exercises and
join in counterterrorism operations.
Arroyo was treated almost regally
during her visit to Washington, attending only the third formal state dinner
Bush has hosted for a foreign dignitary. Bush announced a new package of
military assistance and, most notably, plans to grant Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA)
status to Manila, putting the Philippines on par with other key regional allies
Australia, Japan and South Korea. But beyond the symbolism of MNNA status, the
designation will advance Washington's plans to use the Philippines as a
strategically located training facility and forward outpost in Southeast Asia,
stockpiling supplies and materiel and keeping a steady rotation of troops in the
country.
Anomalous among the five state visits, however, was that of Roh,
who was granted just 30 minutes with Bush and came away with little impression
of a compromise on the pressing issues of North Korea's nuclear program or the
U.S. force structure in South Korea. The timing of Roh's visit was more
coincidental than planned, as the new president could not visit Washington any
sooner due to the war in Iraq. Relations between Washington and Seoul have been
less than stellar since Bush took office, and the transition from former
President Kim Dae Jung to Roh left a bitter taste in Washington's mouth, as
Roh's support base stemmed from the same groups calling for the ouster of U.S.
forces from the peninsula.
Most obviously, the Bush and Roh
administrations disagree on the best way to deal with North Korea; Bush supports
a policy of isolation with the potential for tighter sanctions, a blockade or
even military action and Roh seeks a more cooperative attitude toward Pyongyang.
Washington is fairly confident Pyongyang won't step too far over the line, and
thus it is only a matter of time until the North caves in on U.S. demands or
implodes. But Seoul is seeing its economy hit hard by uncertainties surrounding
North Korea, and even if Pyongyang doesn't take physically aggressive actions,
Seoul still suffers.
In addition, a compromise does not appear to be
coming anytime soon, as Roh's brief visit with Bush demonstrated the waning
importance the U.S. administration places on South Korea. And since Sept. 11,
the Bush administration has been much less tolerant of dissent, even from its
close allies. With Japan and Australia as firm allies willing to contribute
materially to U.S. security interests -- and the Philippines and Singapore
serving as smaller forward positions for U.S. operations -- South Korea's role
in U.S. Asian security policy is fading.
http://independent.co.kr/bbs/dokrip/view.php?id=Ver2_bbs1&no=358